Source: steel price

Black is a big dive! Fall back together!

Iron ore fell by nearly 3%! The future steel fell by 60!

Reduction of billet by 20 yuan

The off-season is coming.MultihandpokerHow much is the steel price going to fall?

The market is cloudy and cold every day.

The price of Qian'an billet is down, 3480, keep in mind.

In the past glory, there was a noisy voice in the trading floor, but now it is silent, and the transaction is rare and sad.

Period snail guidance, market dance steps turn bleak, manufacturers adjust prices, keep up with the market weather vane.

Looking at the vast expanse of Tiehai, looking for a warm dawn, looking forward to the revival of demand, the reappearance of the past glory.

Time turns, the cycle fluctuates, and the ambition of steel casts hope for the future.

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The influence of multi-empty factors in steel market

The possibility of cutting reserve requirements and interest rates, which has been hotly discussed in the market recently, is seen as a key measure to optimize the monetary and financial environment and boost economic vitality. Under the background of the acceleration of government bond issuance and the imminent arrival of special treasury bonds, timely reserve reduction can effectively supplement the medium-and long-term liquidity of the market, while interest rate reduction is conducive to further reduce physical financing costs and bring positive signals to the steel market.

However, the continued downturn in the real estate market, especially the sales performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises, remained at an all-time low in April, revealingMultihandpokerThe deep adjustment of the real estate industry continues to restrain the demand for steel, which constitutes a negative factor in price.

At the same time, Fed official Kashkari's speech strengthened market expectations that US interest rates would remain stable for a long time, and his "hawkish" stance pushed the dollar stronger, indirectly increasing downward pressure on steel prices. Overall, the steel market is facing a complex and changeable external environment, with both the potential benefits of monetary easing and the adverse effects of weak real estate and a strong dollar.

On May 8, the market encountered downward pressure, the ex-factory price of plain billet (including tax) in Qianan area of Tangshan was reduced by 20 yuan per ton to 3480 yuan / ton.

On the trading side, with the decline of futures rebar prices, the spot market responded positively and lowered the quotation one after another. Compared with the 7th, today's overall trading volume further shrunk, market activity significantly cooled.

Iron ore diving

On the 8th, the main black rebar fell 55, or 1, to close at 3674.Multihandpoker.47%

The main force of the hot roll fell 63, or 1, to close at 3808.Multihandpoker.63%

The main force of coking coal fell 88, or 4.72%, to close at 1777.5.

The main coke fell 94% to 2311, or 3.91%.

Iron ore fell 26, or 2.91%, to 866.

Steel mills fall back in response to the trend

According to incomplete statistics, today, 9 steel mills adjust the ex-factory prices of building materials, of which 3 are up and 6 are down, with a range of 10-30 yuan / ton. The details are as follows:

Up-regulation:

1. Yangtze River: the price of thread and snail will be increased by 20 yuan per ton.

two。 Lu'an: the price of thread, wire rod and spiral is increased by 30 yuan / ton.

3. Jin Shenglan: the thread is increased by 10 yuan, and the price of wire rod and snail is increased by 20 yuan / ton.

Downgrade:

4. Shanxi Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.: the price of thread and screw is reduced by 20 yuan / ton.

5. Yutian Jinzhou: the benchmark price of wire rod is reduced by 10 yuan / ton.

6. Guangxi Guixin: the price of thread, wire rod and snail is reduced by 30 yuan / ton.

7. Zhongyang, Shanxi: the price of wire rod is reduced by 20 yuan / ton.

8. Changle: the price of thread, wire rod and spiral will be reduced by 10 yuan / ton.

9. Guifeng: the price of thread, wire rod and snail will be reduced by 30 yuan / ton.

Spot aspect

Among the 24 markets of building materials, 2 markets rose 10-50 yuan / ton, 3 markets fell 10-20 yuan / ton, and the average price of rebar 20mmHRB400E was 3818 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.

Among the 24 hot coil markets, 16 markets fell 10-20 yuan / ton, and the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coil was 3842 yuan / ton, down 8 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

Among the 23 markets of medium and heavy plate, 9 markets fell 10-20 yuan / ton, and the average price of 14-20mm board was 3920 yuan / ton, down 6 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

Comprehensive point of view

Today, the raw fuel market declined significantly, leading steel futures into a concussive downward channel.

Specifically, iron ore futures fell nearly 3%, while coke futures fell nearly 4% at one point. Although the market still has certain expectations for the fifth round of coke price increases, the possibility of further price increases has been significantly reduced.

In the face of high-priced resources, downstream end customers' willingness to buy has cooled significantly. In addition, with the deepening of seasonal factors, the traditional off-season is coming quietly, indicating that steel demand may reach a peak after a gradual pullback. After a short rebound in hot metal production, it is also expected to peak and adjust accordingly in the near future. In addition, the uncertainty of the external environment also puts additional pressure on the steel market, prompting the market to enter a phased adjustment period.

In this context, the trading logic of the steel market may tilt to the expected management, indicating that the steel price fluctuation range may expand in the short term, showing a wide shock pattern. Based on the current situation, steel prices are expected to decline slightly, and the adjustment range is expected to be in the range of 10 to 30 yuan / ton.