The L2409 contract was weak and volatile, closing at 8436 yuan/ton in night trading. Last week (20240502-0509), the capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production companies was 79haktutscoin.36%, an increase of 1.1% from the previous cyclehaktutscoin.03 percentage points (last week's data was revised to 78.33)haktutscoin; Polyethylene production totaled 516,300 tons, an increase of 1.35% from last week. On the demand side, the downstream polyethylene continues the recovery process, with weekly starts starting at 43.73%, and month-on-month-on-month-on-month. Sample inventory of China's polyethylene production enterprises: 542,400 tons, up 61,500 tons from the previous period and up 12.79% month-on-month. The inventory trend turned from decline to increase; this week, the inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses increased by 6,100 tons compared with the previous cycle, an increase of 0.92% month-on-month. On the cost side, the theoretical value of oil-based linear cost is 8970 yuan/ton,+56 yuan/ton compared with the previous cycle, and the theoretical value of coal-based linear cost is 7119 yuan/ton,+273 yuan/ton compared with the previous cycle. Polyethylene will weaken in the short term due to the recovery of supply growth + weakening demand + falling crude oil. However, the bottom cost support is strong and the spot transaction is good after the decline. Focusing on the maintenance situation in May, it is estimated that the L2409 contract will remain in the range of 8300 - 8550, and the operation will be in the upper band operation. In terms of fundamental horizontal comparison, plastic is stronger than PP and PVC.

Researcher: Cai Yuehui

Futures qualification number: F0251444

Futures investment consulting certificate number: 20013101

Assistant Researcher: Li Qiurong

Futures qualification number: F03101823

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