Zhitong Financial APP learned that Tianfeng Securities issued a research report that has consistently adhered to a good judgment on the performance of "white electricity + export" chain companies since the beginning of the year. Looking forward to the second quarter, we will continue to be optimistic about the stable assets represented by Baidian and the export chain companies represented by independent brands. At present, the export of household appliances has a high bearing, and it is optimistic that the domestic "trade-in" policy is gradually taking effect, and the joint force of trade-in is being formed in both publicity and subsidies, which is conducive to stimulating a larger stock market (it is estimated that the empty ice washing stock is close to 2 billion, and the renewal cycle has been significantly longer than 10 years). In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to the historically relatively low targets dominated by domestic demand, such as Coworth (603486).Hellspinnodepositbonus.sh), Polar Rice Technology (688696)Hellspinnodepositbonus.sh), kitchen electricity plate, etc.
Recommended targets: 1) large appliances: such as Midea (000333.SZ) / Hisense Appliances (000921.SZ) / Gree Appliances (000651.SZ) / Haier Zhijia (600690.SH); 2) small home appliances: such as Stone Technology (688169.SH) / 603486.SH; 3) itsHellspinnodepositbonusHis home appliances: such as Oprah Lighting (603515.SH) / Shield Environment (002011.SZ) / Bull Group (603195.SH) / Changhong Huayi (000404.SZ), etc.
The main points of Tianfeng Securities are as follows:
Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the relative income of white appliances in 24Q1 home appliances plate is the most obvious, other sectors have structural growth, and most of the underlying valuation levels have improved from the previous month. In terms of fund positions, 24Q1 funds intend to increase their shareholding ratio to 3.9% from the previous month, and their shareholding ratio continues to increase to 3.9%; the overallotment ratio is 1.9%, which is higher than that of 23Q4, and the overallocation ratio has been close to the average level since 17 years (2.1%). From the perspective of the stock-bond yield model, the Shenwan Home Appliance Index is currently at the 3-year average level of the stock-bond yield gap.
In terms of domestic sales, in terms of large household appliances, 24Q1 domestic air conditioners shipped 25.74 million units, with a faster-than-expected growth rate and obvious toughness at a high base; from January to February, the online growth rate of optional items in small household appliances was under pressure, and floor sweepers grew at a low base. On the export side, 24Q1 benefits from replenishment in Europe and the United States, demand improvement leads to export repair, and North American real estate stabilizes as a whole; from a regional point of view, the export volume of large household appliances in emerging markets has expanded significantly in recent years, bringing the main source of increment for home appliance exports.
White electricity plate: the internal and external sales are good, and the influence of raw material price fluctuation can be controlled. The export of goods at home and abroad has a good bearing, and the profit level has improved steadily. From the industry online data, 24 years air ice wash domestic demand is good, 24Q1 air ice wash domestic sales have achieved positive growth, especially air conditioners in the same period last year under the high growth base still maintain a good shipping growth, better than market expectations; driven by replenishment demand, ice washing exports since 23Q3 maintained a high growth rate, showing a better prosperity. In terms of cost, the copper price trend in the raw materials is strong, rather than the general rise in the price of the core raw materials, the current impact on the White Power Company can be controlled, and the company can also conduct through hedging, cost reduction and efficiency, and product structure upgrading.
Kitchen electricity plate: tobacco stove market steady growth, Huadi revenue, performance growth is eye-catching. The growth rate of double-line sales in the 24Q1 range market has increased steadily; the average price of the range hood market has increased, and the position of the boss and Fangtai kitchen and electricity double leader has been consolidated. Retail sales of 23H1 kitchen electricity industry increased slightly compared with the same period last year. Report side, 23 years / 24Q1 kitchen electricity plate revenue YoY+4%/-1%, return to the mother net profit YoY+12/-7%. From the performance of individual stocks, Huadi's income and profit growth outperformed the industry, while the growth rate of integrated stove enterprises was under pressure. In terms of profitability, integrated stove enterprises are under pressure; among them, 23Q4&24Q1 Vardi's profitability continues to improve, and the boss's net interest rate maintains stability. At the same time, 24Q1 boss, Huadi inventory turnover accelerated year-on-year, and operating cash flow increased significantly compared with the same period last year.
Small household appliances plate: export chain performance is better, domestic demand repair waiting for inflection point. The revenue growth rate of 24Q1 Clean Appliances Company is better, and the domestic sales growth rate of traditional small household appliances is still under pressure. On the profit side, the clean electrical appliances sector is obviously upward, mainly from several contributions: 1) the effect of fee control is obvious, especially the sales expense rate significantly reduces the contribution profit level. 2) the companies with relatively high export share benefit from the favorable exchange rate of 24Q1, and the decline in the rate of financial expenses contributes to net profit. 3) the export profit level of the clean appliance private brand company is higher than that of domestic sales, and the net profit has increased when the proportion of export income has increased and the income growth rate has accelerated.
Black electricity plate: structural optimization continued, panel prices rebounded under the industry average price rise. Under the influence of the high fluctuation of the upstream panel price and the continuation of the upgrading trend of the color TV industry structure, the sales volume of the 24Q1 color TV market was 25.5 billion yuan, an increase of 12.6% over the same period last year, and the average price was 3616 yuan, an increase of 18.9% over the same period last year. In terms of profitability, after the rapid decline in panel prices in 21Q3, 23Q2 began to increase significantly compared with the same period last year, and the current high level, affected by rising costs, Hisense video Q1 gross profit margin fell slightly compared with the same period last year.
ItsHellspinnodepositbonusHis home appliance plate: 24Q1 electrical plate revenue increased steadily, profitability improved. The revenue of 24Q1 civil electrician rose steadily, and the profits of Opp and Bulls increased by more than 20%. The inventory turnover of 24Q1 Dun'an increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the operating cash flow improved significantly compared with the same period last year.
Risk hints: the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations; the risk of fluctuations in the real estate market; the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; the measurement process is subjective; the small number of samples may cause the risk of deviation of statistical results.
