ATFX Energy: on May 25th local time, Iran approved an increase in the oil production of the Iranian National Oil Company from 3.6 million barrels per day to 4 million barrels per day, a plan approved by interim President Mokbel. By implementing the oil production plan, Iran will be able to generate 7 billion dollars in additional revenue. Last week, the Russian Ministry of Energy said that Russian production exceeded that in April for technical reasons.GamekingvideopokermachineOPEC plus quota. Iran's increase in production superimposes that Russia has exceeded its production quota, the supply side of oil continues to grow, and international oil prices are under pressure.
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The picture above shows the daily trend chart of WTI. Hit a phased high of 87 on April 12thGamekingvideopokermachine.67 US dollars, then continued to fall, down nearly 10% as of today. During this period, there were two rebounds, one on April 26 and the other on May 20, forming two highs, R2 and R1. It just hit a new low last week, and the short trend is expected to continue. The news of increasing production in Iran will have an impact on bullish confidence, and the decline in international oil prices is likely to accelerate this week.
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The picture above shows the total oil inventory in Cushing (excluding SPR). In October 2023, the inventory curve bottomed out at about 21 million barrels. Today, it has rebounded for more than half a year, with the latest inventory level of 36.32 million barrels, an increase of about 73 per cent. As inventories grow, WTI is under constant pressure. Lengthening the cycle, September 2023 is the turning point of WTI from medium-and long-term rebound to medium-and long-term decline. As the inventory curve in Cushing is still very far from the upper limit of 60 million barrels and has great potential to rise, the pressure on international oil prices is not expected to end in a short period of time.
According to OPEC+, the 188th OPEC Congress, the 54th OPEC + Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee (JMMC) meeting, and the 37th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Conference (ONOMM) will be held by videoconference, which will be held on June 1, June 2, local time. The market is looking forward to OPEC+ 's further production cuts to stimulate the current flagging international oil prices. However, from the point of view of the transfer of the meeting form from offline to online, it is less likely that this meeting will announce a major production reduction plan.
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On the demand side, the macroeconomic trend of European and American countries needs to be paid close attention to. According to the April non-farm payrolls report released earlier this month, the number of new non-farm payrolls increased from 31.Gamekingvideopokermachine.50, 000 people plummeted to 175000, the unemployment rate rose from 3.8 per cent to 3.9 per cent, and there were signs of macroeconomic recession. The annual rate of core CPI in the United States fell from 3.8% to 3.6% in April, while the nominal CPI annual rate also fell.Gamekingvideopokermachine0.1 percent, which means that the problem of high inflation in the United States is gradually easing. Inflation and unemployment figures in the eurozone were flat with the previous month, showing a more stable performance. Generally speaking, the macro-economy of Europe and the United States is slightly weak, and the growth is weaker than in the past, resulting in a decline in the potential demand for crude oil, which is bad for WTI.
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